Much is written about demand for property in Dubai, far less about supply. Yet supply is this month's most important topic: the homes sold off-plan in 2022 and 2023 are now being delivered, and it already shows in rents.
What is being delivered
According to the Dubai Land Department, 104 projects were completed in the first half of 2026, adding 24,537 new units. That is more than 36 percent up on a year earlier.
Other sources count homes only and arrive at lower numbers: ValuStrat around 20,250 (15,039 apartments and 5,218 villas), CBRE around 18,000. The difference lies in what is included.
And most of it was still to come. In its half-year report of August, Cushman & Wakefield expected around 32,000 more homes in the second half of the year, around 55,600 for the whole of 2026: the highest number since 2008. For 2027 it expects more than 60,000. Figures for the third quarter have not yet been published.
What is already showing
The quarterly reports from CBRE and Cushman & Wakefield cover April to June; their third-quarter figures have not yet been published. Where more recent figures exist, we include them.
Rents. Most reports see rents falling. According to CBRE, average rents fell 6.2 percent in the second quarter compared with the first: 6.5 percent for apartments, 4 percent for villas. Cushman & Wakefield arrives at 6 percent lower than in the first quarter and 3 percent lower than a year earlier. REIDIN saw rents in September 6.8 percent below a year earlier. Not every source sees that decline: ValuStrat, which works from valuations, saw rents flat in the second quarter and 1.7 percent higher than a year earlier. Tenants, Cushman & Wakefield notes, do now have clearly more negotiating power.
What stands out: those who move pay less than those who stay. According to CBRE, new leases were agreed notably lower than renewals in the second quarter. That is due to the added supply, and to homes previously let as holiday homes now coming onto the regular rental market.
Sale prices. Every source sees sale prices falling since the spring, but by how much differs. According to ValuStrat, which works from valuations rather than actual sales, values fell by around 10 percent from the outbreak of the regional conflict in late February through June. In September they stood 4.5 percent below a year earlier: 6.4 percent for apartments, 3.4 percent for villas. For villas, it is the first annual decline since 2021. REIDIN saw prices in September 1.3 percent below a year earlier. CBRE and Cushman & Wakefield still saw them around 2 percent above a year earlier in June; according to Cushman & Wakefield, though, 4 percent lower than in the first quarter. In July, CBRE expected them to fall below last year's level in the third quarter. ValuStrat's and REIDIN's figures for September point that way; CBRE's own figures for that quarter have not yet been published. From month to month, prices barely moved in September according to ValuStrat and REIDIN.
What stands against it
Demand is growing too. At the end of 2025, Dubai counted 4.58 million residents, 7.5 percent more than a year earlier. In mid-October, Dubai's official population counter, a continuously updated estimate, stands at more than 4.81 million: around 235,000 more than at the start of the year.
And not everything planned gets built. According to Cushman & Wakefield, nearly 525,000 homes are planned up to 2030; for comparison, Dubai has around 957,000 today. By mid-2026, only around 186,000 of those planned homes were more than 20 percent built. Cushman & Wakefield therefore expects actual completions to be significantly lower than scheduled. The same gap shows for this year itself: at the start of 2026, ValuStrat counted more than 131,000 homes scheduled, and around 15 percent of that was delivered in the first half. According to CBRE, part of the 2026 deliveries is shifting to 2027, and ValuStrat points to persistent delays and higher construction costs.
At the same time, developers are bringing fewer new projects to market. In the first half of the year, that was 58 percent fewer apartments and 78 percent fewer villas than a year earlier. July remained quiet too: REIDIN counted 15 new projects with 3,397 homes in total.
How we look at it
The figures differ by source, because each source measures differently. Most do point the same way: more supply is arriving, and it is putting pressure on rents above all.
What strikes us most is that the decline is reaching established areas too. According to Cushman & Wakefield, apartment sale prices on Palm Jumeirah, in Downtown and in Dubai Marina recorded their first annual decline in five years in the first half of 2026. CBRE saw the largest falls in sale prices in the second quarter for apartments on Palm Jumeirah (9 percent), in Business Bay and in Downtown (around 7 percent each). Yet Cushman & Wakefield sees demand concentrating precisely in established areas. Location alone does not protect a property: the area determines demand, the property and the price determine whether you get it. What makes the difference is how a property compares with the homes coming onto the market around it: its condition, how it is furnished and who lives in it.
In the previous correction, prices in Dubai fell by almost 30 percent between 2014 and 2020. Whoever bought at the top in September 2014 only saw that price again at the end of 2023, more than nine years later. What survives a correction is therefore not an address, but a purchase price that works on today's rent.
When we put all these figures side by side, we see four things.
- Nobody knows exactly how much will be delivered, or when. For this year alone, expectations range from around 55,600 to more than 131,000 homes. We therefore do not base a purchase on what is planned, but on what is certain today: the rent a property brings in, the condition it is in and the price being asked for it.
- Rents react faster than sale prices. That matters, because nearly three quarters of Dubai's homes are occupied by tenants: for most homes, the rental market is the market. In the second quarter, rents were 2.6 percent below a year earlier according to CBRE, while sale prices were still 1.9 percent higher. Whoever buys today at last year's prices, with this year's rent, earns a lower return. That is why we calculate every purchase on today's rent.
- The pressure comes mainly at the moment a property is let again. New leases are being agreed lower than renewals. A tenant who stays, and a property that stands out next to the new supply when it is let again, make the difference in this market. A higher rent from the wrong tenant costs more than it brings.
- A quieter market gives buyers more room to negotiate. According to CBRE, the number of transactions in the second quarter was 29 percent lower than a year earlier, and 42 percent lower for completed homes. Cushman & Wakefield sees a gap between what sellers ask and what buyers offer. We therefore negotiate on two fronts: on the purchase price, so our investor buys as well as possible, and on the rent, so the return is as high as possible. Because a property at our standard sits above the market, we can also ask a higher rent for it.
